WRF Verification

• NCEP temperature data: contours of the minimum and the maximum temperature from the day
• Max ND Temp: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/get-map.html?mtype=daily&variable=ddmxtm&c=c&u=1&begin_date=2022-07-03&end_date=2022-07-03
• WRF temperature data: the hour with the generally highest/lowest temperature from the day
• NDAWN temperature data: the minimum and the maximum temperature from the day at each of the 140 stations
• NCEP 500 mb map: 500 mb heights at 7:00 am est
• Plymouth 500 mb heights and vorticity at 12Z https://vortex.plymouth.edu/myowxp/upa/ovrmap-a.html
• WRF 500 mb map: 500 mb heights at 11Z (7:00 am est)
• UCAR reflectivity: mosaic radar image from the College of Dupage weather site, reflectivity data is from NWS radar sites at the time of the storm https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/radar/
• WRF reflectivity: simulated composite reflectivity at the time of the storm
• University of Wyoming sounding: Bismarck NWS 12Z balloon launch
• WRF sounding: 12Z simulated sounding in Bismarck
• Plymouth State winds: NCEP/NCAR upper air reanalysis data, 12Z wind speed at 250 mb
• WRF winds: 12Z simulated wind speed at 250 mb
• ALL WRF DATA FOR THE VERIFICATION IS BASED ON THE THOMPSON MICROPHYSICS SCHEME

Surface Observations from 21Z July 2nd (left) and 12Z July 2nd (right)

  The top image shows the high and low temperature observations for the day. Both WRF 3.7 and 4.0 show 
  high values similar to the observations. Colder temperatures are evident on the WRF 4.0 11Z map in 
  the sw corner of ND. The WRF 4.0 20Z map also shows colder temperatures around Lake Sakakawea. WRF 
  3.7 20Z shows anomolous cold pools in MT that do not appear in WRF 4.0 and the observations.

  The image on the left shows the NCEP recorded 500mb heights at 7:00am est, and the image on the right 
  is WRF reported 500mb heights at 7:00am est. The 5760 m contour crosses the Western border of North 
  Dakota about halfway up the state on the NCEP analysis, and about 2/3 of the way up on the WRF 3.7 
  run. That contour gently slopes Southeast in both analyses. The WRF 4.0 map has less vorticity in 
  northern ND but more concentrated vorticity starting in Burleigh county.

  The image on the left is a mosaic radar image at 23Z and the image on the right is the WRF 3.7
  forecasted composite reflectivity from the same time. The strong system is present in the WRF runs 
  however WRF 3.7 and 4.0 has the storm further to the south. As for the storms shape structure, there 
  is variability between the WRF runs but neither look identical to observations.

  The sounding on top is the 12Z July 2nd launched from Bismarck. Below is the WRF 3.7 and 4.0 
  soundings plotted at the same time. The main difference is the PWAT values being 21.51 on the 
  observed sounding and closer to 0.93 in on the WRF runs. As for the sounding's profiles the WRF runs 
  have a surface inversiton with decreasing then increasing dew point temperatures. The Tropopause 
  level is consistent from the observations and the WRF runs. The Hodographs are also consistent.

  The wind chart on top is from the Plymouth State Weather Center showing 250 mb wind speed, and 
  the images below are the WRF 3.7 and 4.0 plots from the same. All of the charts indicate wind speeds 
  in the 70s in Western North Dakota and increasing the 80s by the middle of the state.

  All three sets of images (NCEP, WRF, and NDAWN) indicate high temperatures in the 80s for Bowman, ND. 
  Lows are in the mid 50s on all three charts. The three sets of charts align fairly well.

  The image on the left shows the NCEP recorded 500mb heights at 7:00am est, and the image on the right 
  is WRF reported 500mb heights at 7:00am est. The 5760 m contour crosses the Northern border of North 
  Dakota near Bottineau County on both charts. Both charts show a generally uniform east-west contour 
  pattern in North Dakota.

  The image on the left is a mosaic radar image from July 4th at 4Z, and the image on the right is the 
  WRF forecasted composite reflectivity from the same day, at 10Z. The strong squall line is seen in 
  both images, however the timing and location are a bit off. The WRF showed the system several hours 
  later than what actually happened, and farther north than the system that actually came through.

  The sounding on the left is the 12Z July 3rd launch from Bismarck. The sounding on the right is the 
  12Z July 3rd Bismarck model sounding produced by WRF. The actual sounding has a larger inversion than 
  the model sounding because it’s more saturated at the surface and the WRF sounding has a more 
  saturated layer above 400mb than the archive sounding, but other than that, the two line up pretty 
  well. The temperatures at 500mb and 250mb are nearly identical on each sounding, and the general 
  shapes are nearly the same. The wind profiles are also similar, with a veering profile in the lower 
  atmosphere, a bit of backing near 600mb, and strong winds in the mid to upper atmosphere.

  The wind chart on the left is from the Plymouth State Weather Center showing 250 mb wind speed, and 
  the image on the right is the WRF model showing the same. Both charts indicate wind speeds in the 70s 
  in Southern North Dakota and increasing the 80s by the middle of the state. The WRF forecasted winds 
  to be 100 knots just past the Northern border of North Dakota, but the Plymouth State reanalysis only 
  indicates 90 knot winds. The zonal flow pattern with winds increasing to the north was the same I 
  both maps.

  The WRF model indicated warmer temperatures than were observed, for both maximums and minimums. While 
  the WRF was indicating highs well above 100 degrees, they were closer to the upper 90s in western 
  North Dakota. Lows settled in the upper 60s/lower 70s in western North Dakota, but the WRF forecasted 
  minimums well into the 80s in west-central North Dakota. General temperature patterns matched between 
  NDAWN data and WRF forecasts, but the WRF ran several degrees warmer than observed temperatures.

  The image on the left shows the NCEP recorded 500mb heights at 7:00am est, and the image on the right 
  is WRF reported 500mb heights at 7:00am est. The 5880 m contour crosses the Western border of North 
  Dakota about midway through the state on the WRF run, and a third of the way up the state on the NCEP 
  chart. Both charts show a ridge near the Western border of North Dakota.

  The image on the left is a mosaic radar image from July 18th at 11:30pm and the image on the right is 
  the WRF forecasted composite reflectivity from the same day. The structure of the storm that 
  developed is similar on both images, however the WRF was about 2 hours ahead in development. The 
  location of the line of storms is pretty similar.

  The sounding on the left is the 12Z July 18th launch from Bismarck. The sounding on the right is the 
  12Z July 18th Bismarck model sounding produced by WRF. The actual sounding has a larger inversion 
  than the model sounding because it’s cooler at the surface. The WRF sounding is more saturated than 
  the archive sounding, but other than that, the two line up pretty well. The temperatures at 500mb and 
  250mb are nearly identical on each sounding, and the general shapes are nearly the same. The wind 
  profiles are also similar, with a veering profile in the lower atmosphere and fairly uniform westerly 
  winds in the mid to upper atmosphere.

  The wind chart on the left is from the Plymouth State Weather Center showing 250 mb wind speed, and 
  the image on the right is the WRF model showing the same. The WRF indicates wind speeds in the 70s, 
  while the Plymouth State map indicates much slower wind speeds, around 55 knots.

  The top image shows the high and low temperatures for the day from NCEP, the middle images shows the 
  high and low temperatures from WRF, and the bottom images show the minimum and maximum temperatures 
  from NDAWN. The NCEP and WRF highs were in the 90s, and NDAWN shows highs in the upper 80s to low 90s 
  in western North Dakota. The NCEP low was in the 60s, the WRF showed lows in the upper 50s to low 
  60s, and the NDAWN map was a bit all over the place. Most lows on the NDAWN map were in the same 
  range as the WRF map, but there were some warmer and cooler bubbles. Overall, temperatures were 
  within a reasonable range.

  The image on the left shows the NCEP recorded 500mb heights at 7:00am est, and the image on the right 
  is WRF reported 500mb heights at 7:00am est. The 5820 m contour crosses the Northern border of North 
  Dakota about midway through the state on the NCEP, and the Northeastern corner of the state can be 
  extrapolated on the WRF run. Both charts show a southeastern sloping trend through North Dakota.

  The image on the left is a mosaic radar image from August 23rd at 22:25Z and the image on the right 
  is the WRF forecasted composite reflectivity from the same day. The structure of the storm that 
  developed is similar on both images, however the WRF painted the storm further Southeast. The timing 
  was pretty similar between the two.

  The sounding on the left is the 12Z August 23rd launch from Bismarck. The sounding on the right is 
  the 12Z August 23rd Bismarck model sounding produced by WRF. The actual sounding has a larger 
  inversion than the model sounding because it’s cooler at the surface. The general shape of the two 
  soundings are very similar. The temperatures at 500mb and 250mb are nearly identical on each 
  sounding. The wind profiles are also similar, with a veering profile in the lower atmosphere and 
  fairly uniform west-southwesterly winds in the mid to upper atmosphere.

  The wind chart on the left is from the Plymouth State Weather Center showing 250 mb wind speed, and 
  the image on the right is the WRF model showing the same. Both charts indicate wind speeds in the 20s 
  in Southern North Dakota and increasing slightly as you move North in the state.

  The top image shows the high and low temperatures for the day from NCEP, the middle images shows the 
  high and low temperatures from WRF, and the bottom images show the minimum and maximum temperatures 
  from NDAWN. The NDAWN and WRF highs were in the upper 60s-lower 70s in western North Dakota, and NCEP 
  shows highs in the 70s in western North Dakota. The NCEP low was in the 40s, and the WRF and NDAWN 
  showed lows in the upper 40s and slightly below. NCEP may have shown temperatures slightly warmer 
  than WRF or NDAWN, however all three were pretty on par with each other.

  The image on the left shows the NCEP recorded 500mb heights at 7:00am est, and the image on the right 
  is WRF reported 500mb heights at 7:00am est. The 5640 m contour crosses the western and southern 
  borders of North Dakota in the southwest corner of the state on both the NCEP chart, and the WRF 
  chart. Both charts show a southeastern sloping trend through North Dakota.

  The image on the left is a mosaic radar image from June 2nd at 02:25Z and the image on the right is 
  the WRF forecasted composite reflectivity from the same day at 4Z. The structure of the storm that 
  developed is similar on both images with several weak, isolated cells in the center of western North 
  Dakota which dissipate as they propagate south. The timing was a little different between the two, 
  with the WRF being about an hour behind what was actually seen.

  The sounding on the left is the 12Z June 2nd launch from Bismarck. The sounding on the right is the 
  12Z June 2nd Bismarck model sounding produced by WRF. The actual sounding has a larger inversion than 
  the model sounding because it’s cooler at the surface. The general shape of the two soundings are 
  very similar; both include a saturated layer around 700 mb. The temperatures at 500mb and 250mb are 
  nearly identical on each sounding. The wind profiles are also similar, with pretty uniform west- 
  northwesterly throughout the entire atmosphere. The model sounding has weak winds at the surface 
  while the actual sounding shows no winds at the surface.

  The wind chart on the left is from the Plymouth State Weather Center showing 250 mb wind speed, and 
  the image on the right is the WRF model showing the same. Both charts indicate wind speeds around 75 
  kts in Southwestern North Dakota and decreasing as you move northeast in the state. The WRF model has 
  a stronger gradient in wind speeds than the observations indicated.

  The top image shows the high and low temperatures for the day from NCEP, the middle images shows the 
  high and low temperatures from WRF, and the bottom images show the minimum and maximum temperatures 
  from NDAWN. The NDAWN and NCEP highs both reached above 80°F in the very southwest corner of North 
  Dakota, and were in the 70s throughout the rest of the state. The WRF model shows highs in the 70s in 
  North Dakota, and just barely kept the 80°F temperatures in Montana and South Dakota. All three data 
  sets show lows in the 40s through most of Western North Dakota. There are little pockets of slightly 
  warmer air here and there, but generally speaking, lows were consistently in the 40s.

  The image on the left shows the NCEP recorded 500mb heights at 7:00am est, and the image on the right 
  is WRF reported 500mb heights at 7:00am est. The 58200 m contour crosses the southwestern tip of 
  North Dakota on both of the charts. The WRF model has the contour around 50 miles further northeast 
  compared to the NCEP model, but there isn’t a huge difference between the two.  Both charts show a 
  southeastern sloping trend through North Dakota.

No precipitation was indicated on the WRF model nor the mosaic radar archive page

  The sounding on the left is the 12Z July 28th launch from Bismarck. The sounding on the right is the 
  12Z July 28th Bismarck model sounding produced by WRF. The two soundings are very similar. The 
  general shape of the two soundings is pretty much the same, including a nearly saturated surface, 850 
  mb saturation, and a dryer layer around 450 mb. The temperatures at 500mb and 250mb are nearly 
  identical on each sounding. The wind profiles are also similar, with a veering profile in the lower 
  atmosphere and fairly uniform northwesterly winds in the mid to upper atmosphere.

  The wind chart on the left is from the Plymouth State Weather Center showing 250 mb wind speed, and 
  the image on the right is the WRF model showing the same. Both charts indicate wind speeds around 50 
  kts along the Western border of North Dakota and increasing to 75 kts by the middle of the state. 
  These two charts show a nearly identical pattern.